People are already showing off their “I Voted!” stickers, but how is that possible? Election Day is still ten days away! Over 34 million people have already voted (New York Times), and Professor Clinton covered this phenomenon of “early voting” in Tuesday’s lecture—his first one back!
Our traditional Election Day, which falls on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, hasn’t always looked the way it does now. For instance, in 1844, there wasn’t a single national “election day”; instead, states held elections over a month-long period, from November 1 to December 4. That created chaos, and in the following year, Congress decided to set a single, nationwide Election Day.
But despite this federal intervention, much of the election process remains up to each state. “How we vote in this country varies by state,” Professor Clinton explained. The founders designed it that way to prevent the federal government from being too powerful or controlling when it comes to elections. This has led to vastly different voting experiences across states. For example, voting in Oregon is relatively easy: everyone automatically receives a mail-in ballot 14–18 days before Election Day, no photo ID is required, and residents are registered to vote by default when they get a driver’s license (unless they opt-out). On the other hand, Mississippi has strict requirements: early voting is allowed only under certain circumstances, a government-issued ID is required (not a student ID), and voters must register in person. Moreover, non-incarcerated felons can vote in Oregon, while most cannot in Mississippi.
These differences reveal how “we’ve become very politicized not only in candidate preferences but also in how we think people should vote,” Professor Clinton noted. Professor Hemmer later added that the divide is largely party-based: Democrats prioritize accessible voting, while Republicans focus on election security.
These political differences have also led to what Professor Hemmer called a “post-campaign campaign,” an increasingly common trend since the Bush-Gore election of 2000. This “campaign after the campaign” includes challenges to election results in court, with cases frequently arguing over whether voting access should be easier or harder. After the 2020 election, for example, there were 62 lawsuits attempting to overturn the outcome to favor former President Trump. Although 61 of those cases were dismissed as baseless, this tactic is partly about casting doubt on the electoral process itself. Anticipating a similar wave of legal battles, the Harris campaign has reportedly assembled more lawyers than usual to defend results, no matter the outcome.
That brings us to Thursday’s night-time lecture, with guest speaker Dr. Simon Jackman. Dr. Jackman serves as an Honorary Professor at the University of Sydney. As a data scientist and political scientist, he is deep in the weeds of election result modeling. Dr. Jackman asserts that polls are like a World War II-era radar, they are a “creaky, creaky measurement apparatus.” Instead, we need a bigger telescope, if we want to be able to forecast election results accurately. While his career has been in this type of forecasting, he jokes that “it ain’t exactly rocket science…no! It’s harder!” His insights echoed the semester’s lessons on how, despite improving accuracy, polling is far from perfect.
Lastly, in the last 10 minutes of Thursday’s class, we were surprised with another guest: Jonathan Martin, the politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at POLITICO. At this time, our guests discussed the belief that polling may be biased against President Trump. Martin believes there is no way to capture Donald Trump’s support in models, but that there is a “silent Kamala” vote as well. For many voters, they do not want to vote for Trump but they’re not convinced Harris will govern from the center. In the last 10 days of the campaign, we will see how (or if) the campaigns work to motivate and persuade voters.
This week’s lectures made one thing clear: while Election Day may be right around the corner and millions have already voted, the outcome is far from certain—and what happens after Election Day could be just as unpredictable.
